Our threat used to be Iran was gonna develop and make a rush for the nuclear weapon.

Today, they have veto control over the Strait of Hormuz.

And that's why the Gulf country says you're not ending this until that veto is eliminated.

Hello, and welcome to GZERO World.

I'm Ian Bremmer, and we have a special show for you today taped in front of a live audience here in New York City.

I'm bringing you my conversation with one of the most battle-tested operators in American politics and diplomacy, Rahm Emanuel.

Emanuel has worn more than a few hats in public life.

He was Democratic Party bulldog, congressman, White House chief of staff to President Obama, mayor of Chicago, and most recently, U.S.

ambassador to Japan, where he was on the front lines of America's strategy in the Indo-Pacific.

But this is a conversation about power as much as it is about politics, and how American foreign policy is reshaping the global order in real time.

The world looks very different today than it did when Emmanuel's former boss, a beleaguered President Biden, left the White House and a victorious, albeit vindictive, President Trump strutted back in.

Roughly a year later, the president's decision to launch massive military strikes on Iran alongside Israel has sharply escalated a second-term foreign policy approach that prioritized conquest over compromise, from Greenland to Venezuela.

And in recent weeks, the targeted Iran strikes have escalated into a broader regional war, with Iranian retaliation hitting Gulf allies, disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and threatening global energy markets.

At the same time, Trump's own objectives are changing.

Early calls for regime change in Iran have faded.

Demands around leadership and political outcomes have been scaled back.

If ending the war were solely up to Trump, he'd basically be ready to declare victory and move on.

But having gotten himself into a large-scale war, ending it on his own terms has proven more difficult than starting it.

And from what I'm hearing from allied leaders, there is real concern, not just about the war itself, but about the decision-making behind it.

Some describe to me a president who appears, in their words, "increasingly disconnected from reality in the middle of a major foreign policy crisis."

So I talked to Emanuel about Iran, of course, but also about what this new posture means for America's alliances, its global standing and its domestic politics.

Because President Trump's foreign policy is about to collide with the 2026 midterms.

And war may be hell, but November doesn't look like a picnic for the president either.

Don't worry, I've also got your puppet regime.

How can we learn to appreciate the blessings that surround us?

Vladimir Putin here with new episode of me and Xi's wellness podcast, This Authoritarian Life.

But first, a word from the folks who help us keep the lights on.

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The planet needs all of us.

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Additional funding provided by Carnegie Corporation of New York, Koo and Patricia Yuen, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities, and... (upbeat music) - Rahm, gotta start with the Middle East, of course.

- What a surprise.

- Shocking.

I don't see a plan to end it anytime soon.

If you were offering advice to the commander in chief today, just today, never mind, we'll get to how they started all of this, but today you would say what?

What are you, a schmuck?

Uh, no.

This is public television, but thank you for that.

Well, there's a translation that comes underneath.

Yeah.

You know the famous line, you know this, Ian, which is, you know, when you start a war, the other side gets a vote.

Well, that's also true about ceasefires.

Or peace, they get a vote too.

And they have found all our vulnerabilities.

We have found their vulnerabilities as well in this process.

And I think that the best thing the president can do is have degraded them to a point that goes back to where I think he should have started this if you were going to start it.

That's a different question, which is this on the nuclear capacity, this on the intercontinental ballistic missiles, this on the delivery, and this on the terrorist organizations throughout the region.

We have degraded them to the potential that they're backed off.

And here's what we're going to do on the oil and energy.

The problem is now, our threat used to be Iran was going to develop and make a rush for the nuclear weapon.

Today, they have veto control over the Strait of Hormuz.

And that's why the Gulf country says you're not ending this until that veto is eliminated.

So at this point-- and I think you're right about this-- The Israelis want the Americans to continue.

Why don't we just start with the first question I got.

You're right, so therefore-- There you go.

Let's end it right there.

The Gulf states also want the Americans to continue.

And Trump owns this at this point.

- The Gulf countries did not want this.

They wanted serenity and order.

They were prospering with that.

They're also, having spent some of my life in the region, they're not happy you got a Qatari jet.

We invested in all your families' different businesses.

And we, our voices are nothing.

And the prime minister walks in and you agree with him and we don't get any vote in this process.

The Israeli prime minister.

- Yeah, I'm sorry, the Israeli prime minister.

And so therefore, they've now said, OK, you started this, we didn't want this, we didn't get listened to, we didn't get asked, you ignored us, you have to finish it.

And finishing it, in your view, means what?

It's not my view.

Well, my view, which is also relevant to their view, which is they cannot have a veto over the Strait of Hormuz.

They cannot have it.

It's unacceptable.

And so an absolute regime change, that means what?

Had the President addressed the country, not in an eight-minute video on social, on his Truth Social, but addressed the country where you're about to put men and women at risk.

In the Oval Office, the seriousness of this is the most serious decision a commander-in-chief will make.

He should have said, "I wanted this resolved at the negotiating table.

I spent months with my team at the table trying to seek a solution to their nuclear capacity, their missile delivery capacity, and their desire to create chaos throughout the region.

I spent time at that table to seek a deal that worked for Iran and worked for us.

I wanted that, but I also believed in the American word.

Every president before me said, "Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and all options are on the table."

And the American word, when it gives it, is worth defending.

This decision, you could have created a structure and an argument.

He launches off into regime change and a political objective that never can be achieved at 25,000 feet up in the air.

An objective that the American people are questioning seriously, which is, why are we doing this?

- If he had made that statement, is that statement consistent with the decision to decapitate and assassinate the Supreme Leader, or that decision would have, that speech would have had to be made with a different set of military objectives?

Listen, we are the superpower.

At no time should there have been a decision to basically make this political in any measure.

It should not, because it can't be accomplished.

Put aside, let me say one thing.

It's pretty clear from the UK security officer who was at the negotiations and other reporting that Iran was offering very serious compromises on each of those buckets of issues.

This was a war absolutely of choice.

This is a war of choice.

And that's why, going back to your first question, the Gulf countries have said, you didn't ask.

We gave you our advice.

We told you not to do this.

Now that you do this, you have to finish the job.

The Europeans are saying you didn't ask our advice.

You didn't even tell us about it.

Now we're not going to help you.

Well, one, the Europeans slash NATO.

It's a kind of first of its defensive organization.

This is not defensive.

Second is, you have literally spent a year belittling allies.

You've been ridiculing them, saying they're small, they're minor, they're petty.

In the time of need, this is why we have allies.

We spread not only the burden, we are stronger because we have allies.

Now the price of that kind of politics is coming home to roost.

Now, I need to ask you about that, because of course, the director of counterterrorism working in the United States doesn't just resign, but resigns with this spectacular claim that the Israelis and their supporters in the United States are the reason the US is in this war.

It's not an American national interest.

You know that the prime minister of Israel has been around the block many, many times, has been pushing for major military operations in Iran for quite a while.

How do you respond to those charges?

The prime minister has a right, he says what he says.

It's on the president to make a decision.

The prime minister asked Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Donald Trump one, George Bush.

I think you can go as far back as Bill Clinton, but definitely the first.

Every one of them said no.

Every one of them.

If to say that this is on the prime minister means you're absolving the President of the United States of any agency, I'm sorry.

We have a system.

You get X amount of electoral votes, you put your hand on the Bible, you raise the other hand and you take an oath as commander-in-chief.

The idea that somebody else told him to do this and he puts America's reputation, its best, its future, its men and women.

There is a man who now has two seven-month-olds who will never see their father.

On that fireplace mantle will be an American flag in a wooden triangle.

There will be a seat at that two children's, those twins, home that will always be empty.

The best of America is in our armed forces.

That's the true 1%.

You are the commander-in-chief.

You are responsible for them.

And to say somebody else ran it says that he has no agency.

And I don't accept that.

I mean, certainly there is a lot of talk about deployment.

There's talk about taking out the enriched uranium stockpiles.

There's talk about taking out Karg Island, where 90% of the oil goes.

You think that there should, under any circumstances, be a ground deployment here?

OK.

Whether it's a message sending or preparation, I mean, I'm not part of any of the war plans we're conversating, nor are you, but you can only guess what it's for.

But these are a lot of resources being moved to an area that have clear intent and purpose as it relates to the island and the oil and the ability of Iran to sustain itself economically and to create, the United States, create leverage so they don't have a veto power over passage in the Strait of Hormuz.

- Now, there is a lot of stretch.

There's stretch from Asia, there's stretch from weapons that are being sold to Europe for Ukraine.

And the Ukrainians now are providing interceptors and drone expertise to the Gulf states.

So you know this.

So literally a year ago, this is the piece you wrote.

One year ago, this is not what you want to be prescient on, but.

It's the Washington Post?

Yeah, Washington Post.

I wrote that don't ask for mineral rights, ask for their drone technology.

They produce new drone technology every four weeks.

We can't get an RFP out of the Pentagon in four years.

And they have their ability in battle, not only, I mean, literally in real time, the Ukrainians are taking technology, something happens in the battle, it gets a new company, and they're producing new companies, new technology, new software, new capacity.

They just had their first drone with no Chinese products.

Not something that we can do.

So you're asking for the wrong thing.

Six months ago, the Pentagon had a meeting with them on this, and they said, "We don't need your technology."

And now you have the situation, you know, we can't get it fast enough, etc.

And I do believe this, I mean, and this is, we'll be in, this gets to a separate subject, but they're all integrated.

The President of the United States, by taking sanctions off of Russia on their oil, and then you have a friend that you belittled and made fun of, is offering you drones that protect your troops.

Russia, now you've taken sanctions off.

Russia has given intel to kill American soldiers.

This President does not know the difference between friend and foe.

Does not know the difference.

And, appreciate that, the Ukrainians in the last two months have taken 225,000 square miles back from the Russians occupied.

[Applause] They have done it with incredible, with, ready?

New drone technology they came up.

They have thinned out the ability, not only on the Russian lines, but 70 miles from the lines.

Russian cannot supply it.

And this, and you have a country who's providing technology to kill American servicemen.

You're the commander in chief.

Do you know friend from foe?

When he was asked about the targeting of American troops, American facilities, his response to that was, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, well, you know, "the Russians say that we do that too.

"The United States is providing intelligence, of course, "to the Ukrainians that allows them "to strike more deeply into Russian territory.

"The US continues to do that under Trump."

That was his response.

What's a better response?

- Corporal Bone Spur has never found an opportunity to not undermine American intelligence.

And I say this, but this is not the first time he's thrown American intelligence under the bus and gone with Russia.

One of the things we know for a fact, given our intelligence we made public during the early days pre-the Russian invasion on February 22nd, 2022, people gained, around the world, massive respect for the capability of the United States intelligence.

You have a commander-in-chief who at no time doesn't miss an opportunity to undermine it.

Xi is furious that his own intelligence didn't know what the Americans knew.

- I want to move to Asia because you've been spending time there.

And let's face it, the Russians, as much as they were on their knees, they are not a high-performing military right now.

Not in their region, not globally.

The Iranians are certainly not a high-performing military.

The Chinese, on the other hand, are building like crazy, and they're increasingly technologically sophisticated.

The message that the Americans are sending to top allies in the region, to Japan, to South Korea, to Australia, can't count on the United States right now.

So what do you do?

- One of the things, as you know, I've been strong about China, but I do wanna remind you.

They're spending a lot of money.

They did have a submarine that went to the bottom of the river.

It was sitting on the dock, just dropped.

They found that in the missile system, they were putting not fuel, but water.

They have some issues.

When was the last time China fought a naval war?

Never.

So, and the reason Xi's doing what he's doing, because he's rolling the dice on this thing.

He's rolling his entire tenure, his reputation.

And his military last real effort was 1979.

Now, you can say whatever you want about Venezuela, what we're doing in Iran, et cetera.

That's a political judgment and a judgment worth having a debate about, or a discussion.

Don't think for a second the Chinese walk away, "oh, they have low inventory," which we do.

They are seeing the capacity here.

They saw what we did in Venezuela, both satellite, cyber, air, naval integration capacity.

Don't be so sure he walked away and said, "Oh, I got to better his team."

I don't know.

I think he walks-- Let me push back.

Well, you can, but I'm not-- I think he looks at what we've done, and there's-- and also our intelligence back in Ukraine.

Don't assume that he thinks the US military-- that he didn't walk away and said, with a bit of envy and respect for what the military has been able to pull.

I understand that.

Why does he not also look at the United States and say, these people have a glass jaw?

They've got a great military, but they can't tolerate pain.

We saw that with the critical minerals.

They thought they were going to win, and we showed them that we've been investing, and immediately they cry, "Uncle."

And now on Iran, tiny little country doesn't have military capacity, and as soon as they close the strait, suddenly it's like, "Oh my God, what are we going to do?"

Why does that not embolden the Chinese?

As you know, it does.

The biggest analysis that he has with his top political advisor is that America is divided at home and incapable of governing.

What they worry about is a focused, determined America.

They see our political dysfunction, his top political-I'm not-I'm telling you what's in the public domain.

Top-the biggest problem for America is its internal domestic divisions.

And I used to say this as ambassador.

Nothing China does scares me.

It's what we don't do here at home that scares me.

If we don't take care of business here and start solving these problems, that is a bigger threat to us than China looking around and saying, "Oh, America has a glass jaw."

That's a part of the equation.

That's not the equation.

Recent report from V-Dem, which is a pretty reputable group, tracks democracy, says that the United States is sliding into authoritarianism faster than Turkey or Hungary.

Do you agree with that assessment?

The institutions, free press, judicial system, even the universities, take a look at Harvard, etc., they're holding up.

The people in those institutions, not so much.

And I think the biggest piece of this institution that I think is holding up American democracy, the American people.

They are the thin blue line.

Now, I will also say this.

To corporate America, you are timid souls.

He's destroying the greatest research system the world has ever seen.

Not a word, not a chirp.

He's decided that it's a rule of one man, not the rule of law.

I don't know how you think you're making money or businesses without the rule of law.

Not a word, nothing.

You're intimidated.

He has... What do you have an organization for?

You don't want to be an individual company?

Have an organization speak up.

Nothing.

So do I think the institutions, yes, the people in them, as my grandmother would say, not so great.

Not so great.

Not so great.

How do you, if you look ahead to 2028 for a second, if you're the Democrats, what's the most likely way they blow it?

(laughing) Being Democrats.

(laughing) Look, I've said this before and I'll say it again.

We spent two years communicating to the people that we were worried about bathroom access and locker room access, and we never focused on classroom excellence.

50% of our kids today cannot read at grade level, and not a word.

50%.

What makes you think fourth grade's going to get easier after third grade?

You can't read.

And you know more about the president's position on windmills.

Never commented on it.

People go to see a doctor and the insurance company knows one word in the English language, no.

Your 401(k) is not a savings plan.

It backstops your paycheck.

The thing is broken and it's rigged against people who work hard and play by the rules.

And that's where Democrats need to stay focused and they need to normalize themselves and be respectful of families.

I think like this, I mean, I look at this and I look at some of the debates we had on basic core issues and we wrapped ourselves around a, you know, as I jokingly say, we weren't good in the kitchen table, we weren't good in the family room, the only room we actually occupied was the bathroom and it's the smallest room in the house.

This is insane.

Now you haven't announced you're running yet, right?

And I'm not doing it here if I'm doing it.

No, I'm not suggesting that.

We know you're running, but you don't have to formally announce it.

It's not a problem for me.

Now, I will say this again, having been ambassador in a way.

Don't underestimate the power of America as America.

We still are the place that people will cross the Pacific, the Atlantic, the Rio, and the Mississippi to get to, because we still offer a better tomorrow than yesterday.

We have incredible strengths in this country.

We have been living on fumes as a country, but don't underestimate how strong the American pull and how strong America freedom is as a gravitational pull that takes people and grabs them by the heart.

Ladies and gentlemen, Rahm Emanuel.

(applause) And now to something a bit more rational, a bit less absurd than our current geopolitical reality, puppets pretending to be people.

It's Puppet Regime.

How can we learn to appreciate the blessings that surround us?

Vladimir Putin here with new episode of me and Xi's wellness podcast, This Authoritarian Life.

You know Xi, in this crazy modern existence, I think we are losing something important.

The rituals that give us a sense of community and belonging?

Gratitude.

Radical gratitude.

You don't have to say this to me in public, Vladimir.

Shh, shh, shh, shh.

Do you hear it?

Koo, koo, koo, koo, koo.

What?

Why are you making that sound?

It's the sound of the universe whispering gifts to us.

Koo, koo, koo.

Are you having a stroke?

Listen, Xi, a month ago I was in a bad place.

Running out of money, lots of new sanctions, no progress in Ukraine, not even a new Taylor Swift tour to look forward to.

You were really spiraling.

Spiraling.

But then they started the war on Iran.

Right.

- Oil prices went up.

Boom.

They loosened sanctions.

Boom.

I'm getting rich again.

And nobody's talking about Ukraine anymore.

Dude, they even took weapons from Ukraine and sent them to Middle East.

They also took from South Korea.

Koo, koo, koo.

And craziest part is I did nothing myself to make any of this happen.

Just manifesting.

Koo, koo, koo.

Public Regime.

That's our show this week.

Come back next week.

And if you like what you've seen, or even if you don't, but you find that screaming at me on your television is less satisfying than screaming at me on stage, well, too bad, because I'm not letting you anywhere near me.

But you can take a deep breath, and then you can check us out at gzeromedia.com.

[MUSIC PLAYING] Funding for GZERO World is provided by our lead sponsor, Prologis.

Every day, all over the world, Prologis helps businesses of all sizes lower their carbon footprint and scale their supply chains.

With a portfolio of logistics and real estate and an end-to-end solutions platform addressing the critical initiatives of global logistics today.

Learn more at Prologis.com.

And by Cox is proud to support GZERO.

The planet needs all of us.

At Cox, we're working to seed the future of sustainable agriculture and reduce plastic waste.

Together, we can work to create a better future.

Cox, a family of businesses.

Additional funding provided by Carnegie Corporation of New York Koo and Patricia Yuen, committed to bridging cultural differences in our communities, and...