>> ERIC: IT WAS A BIG ECONOMIC NEWS WEEK, MUCH OF IT RELATING TO THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

RISING GAS PRICES IN THE U.S., FEAR OF A WORLDWIDE RECESSION, JOBS NUMBERS THAT LOOK BETTER NATIONALLY THAN HERE IN MINNESOTA.

HAVEN'T EVEN MENTIONED THE YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF PRESIDENT TRUMP'S WORLDWIDE TARIFFS.

CHRIS FARRELL IS BACK.

HE COVERS ECONOMIC NEWS FOR AMERICAN PUBLIC MEDIA.

IN TIMES LIKE THIS, YOU REALIZE HOW ENERGY PRICES EXPAND TO, LIKE, EVERY PART OF THE ECONOMY.

>> OH, ABSOLUTELY.

JUST FILTERS EVERYWHERE.

OF COURSE WE'RE ALL FEELING WHEN YOU GO TO FILL UP AT THE GAS PUMP.

BUT NO, I MEAN, THERE'S -- WHETHER YOU'RE LOOKING AT PETROCHEMICALS, DOESN'T MATTER WHAT INDUSTRY YOU'RE LOOKING AT, OIL AND GAS ARE ABSOLUTELY CRITICAL.

SO THE FARMERS HERE IN MINNESOTA REALLY BEING HURT BY INCREASING PRICES OF, FOR EXAMPLE, FERTILIZER, AND SO A LOT OF COMMODITIES THAT WOULD MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE STRAITS, IT'S ALSO HAVING AN IMPACT.

>> Cathy: I WONDER HERE, WHAT ARE THE SMART PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT THE ECONOMIC FALLOUT FROM THE WAR IN IRAN.

IS IT POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE A WORLDWIDE RECESSION?

>> THERE'S THAT CONVERSATION.

IT'S TOO EARLY.

THERE'S ALWAYS THIS CAVEAT THAT EVERYBODY IS SAYING IT DEPENDS HOW LONG THE WAR LASTS.

SO EARLIER YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT THE PRESIDENT IN HIS ADDRESS TALKING TWO OR THREE WEEKS AND HE'S USING -- HE'S BEEN USING THAT A LOT, TWO OR THREE WEEKS.

AND WE'RE HAVING SOME ESCALATIONS GOING ON, NOW, BECAUSE REMEMBER, EUROPE AND ASIA ARE BEING IMPACTED A LOT MORE BY WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST THAN WE ARE.

BUT OF COURSE THOSE ARE IMPORTANT MARKETS FOR US FOR BUYING OUR GOODS, BUYING OUR SERVICES, SO THEY ARE BISE IMPACTING THAT THEIR ECONOMIES WILL VULNERABLE.

THAT SPILLS OVER TO OUR ECONOMY AND EVEN THOUGH IT IS TRUE, YOU THINK BACK TO THE OIL CRISIS OF THE 1970s, OUR ECONOMY IS FAR LESS VULNERABLE TO HIGHER OIL PRICES BECAUSE YOU JUST THINK ABOUT THE REFRIGERATOR MAYBE YOU BOUGHT IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS OR TEN YEARS.

IT'S MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT.

CARS ARE MORE ENERGY FIRST OVERALL.

SO WE HAVE AN ECONOMY THAT'S LESS VULNERABLE.

BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN WE'RE INVULNERABLE.

THERE IS STILL -- WE STILL USE ENERGY.

AND IT'S A GLOBAL PRICE.

AND WHAT'S APPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST PUTS THE RISK OF A RECESSION BACK INTO THE CONVERSATION.

>> Eric: SO WHAT DOES THE FED DO WITH ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY?

>> O WE GOT THE EMPLOYMENT REPORT, AND IT WAS A PRETTY GOOD REPORT.

AND THAT ACTUALLY WAS I THINK A RELIEF TO THE FED.

BECAUSE THEY'RE LOOKING AT THE INFLATION RATE AND THE INFLATION RATE, IT'S GOING TO GO UP, RIGHT?

I MEAN, IT WAS ON ITS WAY DOWN TO 2%, BUT IT'S BEEN STUBBORN AROUND 3%.

THIS IS GOING TO GIVE IT A BOOST.

WELL, NOW THIS EMPLOYMENT REPORT SAID, OKAY, THE ECONOMY'S STILL MOVING.

WE'RE STILL GETTING JOBS.

IF YOU LOOK OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, WE'RE GAINING 30,000 JOBS A MONTH AND THE ONE MONTH NUMBER WAS 178,000, BUT THAT KIND OF GAVE TOO STRONG A PICTURE ON HOW THIS ECONOMY IS DOING.

SO THE FED IS PROBABLY JUST GOING TO SAY, YOU KNOW WHAT?

, WE'RE JUST GOING TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE DATA COMES OUT.

WE'RE NOT GOING TO CUT RATES AS MANY PEOPLE EXPECTED.

WE MAY EVEN INTERUP HAVING TO RAISE RATES IF THE INFLATION NUMBERS COME IN REALLY BAD.

THE FED IS GOING TO BE CAUTIOUS.

THEY'RE GOING TO MOVE SLOWLY.

AND THEY'RE GOING TO BE VERY WEARY OF CUTTING RATES BECAUSE OF THIS INFLATION RISK.

>> Cathy: WHAT DID YOU MAKE OF THE STATE JOBS REPORT THAT THE METRO AREA OBLESS RATE -- I MEAN, IT DIDN'T LOOK GREAT IN THE METRO AREA.

GREATER MINNESOTA WASN'T AS BAD.

>> I THINK IT'S WHAT WE KIND OF THOUGHT THAT THIS OPERATION METRO SURGE, IT JUST HAD A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE METRO.

IT JUST DID.

AND SO WHEN YOU LOOKED AT THE JOB LOSSES.

WHAT WAS IT?

2000 I BELIEVE IN THE METRO AREA.

I MEAN, THAT'S A LOT OF JOBS.

AND SO EVERYBODY WAS BEING VERY CAUTIOUS AND PROPERLY CAUTIOUS, BUT IT SEEMS THAT OPERATION METRO SURGE WAS THE DIFFERENCE.

IN MAKING THIS.

IT WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN A GREAT REPORT ANYWAY.

THE JOB MARKET HERE IS STAGNATING, MOVING TOWARDS STAGNATION.

BUT THE FACT THAT WE HAVE A 4.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE NATIONAL IS 4.3% AND THAT'S REALLY UNUSUAL.

BECAUSE WE'RE USUALLY WELL BELOW THE NATIONAL.

>> YOU HAD A WONDERFUL SERIES AND THE GIST OF IT WAS GOOD NEIGHBORS HELP THE CONOMY?

>> SO WE'VE ALL HAD CONVERSATIONS ABOUT THIS ENORMOUS CIVIC ENERGY THAT WAS RELEASED DURING THE TRAGEDY OF OPERATION METRO SURGE, AND SO THE QUESTION I PURSUED WAS, CAN YOU TURN THAT ?RG INTO A STRONGER ECONOMY?

BECAUSE YOU THINK OF ALL THE ROLES THAT SMALL BUSINESSES PLAY.

THEY SUPPORTED EACH OTHER.

THEY HELPED EACH OTHER.

BARBER SHOPS BECAME FOOD BANKS AND COFFEE SHOPS BECAME WARMING STATIONS.

AND THERE IS A LONG COTTAGE INDUSTRY OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH THAT SAYS THAT KIND OF ENERGY, THAT SORT OF CIVIC SOCIAL CAPITAL CAN LEAD TO A STRONGER ECONOMY.

>> Eric: CAN FOLKS GO TO MPR.ORG AND FIND IT ARCHIVED SOMEWHERE, >> Cathy: MPRNEWS.ORG.

>> Eric: SAY IT AGAIN?

>> MPRNEWS.ORG.

>> I WASN'T EVEN CLOSE.

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